- 3 Simple Questions -

Robert Yocum

As a Hold’em and Omaha player, you never really know the whole picture of the hands you play. Several people have commented that poker is a game of incomplete information. Many books have talked about reading people and analyzing betting patterns. And while the information is never 100% until the cards are revealed, there is a wealth of information out there. It’s just a matter of sifting through all the data to find the right answers. But in order to get the answer, you have to define the questions. As a core post flop player, I never consider the play of the hand to have started until after I see the first 3 cards. So when I am faced with a decision after the flop, I always ask my self the 3 same simple questions.

Here is the situation I was once in. I have AK unsuited under the gun. Blinds are 200/400. I make a higher than standard 4xBB raise. It folds around to the button-1 who calls, the button folds, the small blind calls, and the big blind folds. The flop comes down A J 4 rainbow. The small blind immediately goes all in for 10k. Here is where the 3 simple questions come into play.

Question 1: What is the best hand?
While this seems like a simple question, but that’s the title of the post. Plus it’s easy to get lost in your own hand. This question forces me to think about what other people have. So the best hand is pocket aces for trips. I also consider the 2nd best hand, which are pocket jacks for trip jacks.

Question 2: What is the best draw?
When I have to call a bet, instead of making one, I always assume that whoever is betting wants me to pay for whatever draw can be out there. In the case of this hand there are 2 ‘best’ draws. KQ/K10 draws for a high straight, 23/25 draws for a wheel. Again these are simple questions but they are meant to force you to slow down and think.

Question 3: What cards do you think the player has?
This is the money question. This is also where all the information comes together. Let’s look at the best hand. I made a big raise UTG and 2 people called. While Top/Top is great in normal situations, in no way can you discount pocket jacks or pocket aces. I doubt the small blind has either of the draw hands. Most players make a small ½ pot size bets when they are bluffing at draws. So let’s look at the players. I know the SB player very well. She is a solid player. I respect her game very well, but she is not above a well timed bluff. So let’s break down cards. J4 is completely out of the question. Only a maniac would call a raise with those cards. I can’t put the button-1 on a hand yet because she won’t act until after me. Plus she is an unknown. Back to the small blind. Her eyes are screaming call call call call call call call call.

My answer: Fold. Whatever the small blind has, she clearly has enough confidence in her hand to risk all her chips on it. If it was one on one I might call, but with the 3rd player I have to fold. So I fold and the 3rd player immediately calls and shows pocket jacks for trip jacks. The small blind flips over pocket aces for trip aces. The last jack never comes and the small blind takes the pot and knocks out the 3rd player. By all rights I should have gone broke that hand. And no, I can’t dodge bullets baby. I just don’t throw chips after hands I don’t think are any good.

- Robert Yocum

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